Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on «ESPN Bet Live» and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
With three weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, we’re starting to get a sense of which teams will be in the playoffs. The Broncos and Rams have clinched berths, but the remaining 12 postseason teams and the overall seedings remain a murky mystery.
Every day, we use ESPN’s Football Power Index to simulate the season 10,000 times — driving our projections and delivering countless permutations for how the remainder of the campaign could go. Today, we’re going to focus on just one of those scenarios: FPI simulation No. 5,002.
We asked the FPI to simulate the last three weeks of the season and come up with the most likely field of 14 playoff teams and the exact seeding order for those teams within each conference. On top of that, we predicted the entire playoff race — with a Super Bowl LX winner — and who would get the No. 1 draft pick.
Let’s explore simulation No. 5,002, starting with score projections for the rest of the regular season.
Jump to … Scores projections by week: 16 | 17 | 18 Final standings: AFC | NFC The playoffs: Who will win Super Bowl LX?
What happened: NFC drama! On Thursday night, the Seahawks snuck past the Rams with a time-expiring, 55-yard field goal from Jason Myers. Not only did that outcome leave the NFC West wide open, but it kept the conference’s No. 1 seed up for grabs. By avenging their loss to the Rams in Week 11, the Seahawks took the lead in the top seed race for a moment. (More on that later.) The 49ers also stayed in the hunt with a Monday night win over the Colts.
Bo Nix outdueled a red-hot Trevor Lawrence to lead Denver past Jacksonville.
What happened: The Broncos took the AFC’s top spot! With a win over the Gardner Minshew-led Chiefs, Denver — fittingly led by a defensive masterpiece — clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
In the NFC, the Seahawks fumbled their advantage over the Rams, losing a barn burner to the Panthers. That outcome, in conjunction with the Rams’ win over the Falcons and the 49ers’ loss to the Bears, put the Rams back into pole position for the No. 1 seed while also giving new life to Chicago’s top seed hopes.
The Bills and Patriots kept things interesting with wins, postponing the conclusion of the AFC East race another week. And in a critical game for NFL draft positioning, the Giants soundly defeated the Raiders; although, really, it was the Raiders who won, gaining the inside track to the No. 1 pick.
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