Week 13 is in the books. It was a chippy one! There was plenty of — as the broadcasters would say — pushing and shoving in Patriots-Giants, Jaguars-Titans and Steelers-Bills. As the weather gets colder and playoff hopes dwindle, so the skirmishes begin. Just know that if any of you hit my editors late, I’ll be coming over with bad intentions.
Every Tuesday, I’ll spin the previous week of NFL action forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We’ll seek measured reactions to everyone’s overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed.
There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.
Jump to a section:
Big Thing: Panic meter for five teams
Second Take: It’s OK for the Bills to run
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 13 stats
The Big Thing: Panic meter
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we’re looking at five playoff contenders to gauge how panicked they should be about recent skids.
Panic meter: DEFCON 1,000,000
(Yes, I understand that the bigger DEFCON numbers are actually less severe. «DEFCON 1» just doesn’t sound as good.)
The Steelers’ 2025 offseason did not work. They pursued Aaron Rodgers in the belief that the 41-year-old quarterback had another year of championship-caliber play in him, and he clearly doesn’t. They swapped safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey in the belief that Ramsey could still play cornerback and give them unprecedented versatility in the defensive backfield, and he couldn’t and hasn’t. They extended T.J. Watt in the belief that the 30-year-old edge rusher’s game would age well, and it hasn’t. They flipped George Pickens for DK Metcalf in the belief that Pickens’ behavioral headaches weren’t worth his production at receiver, which they could backfill with Metcalf, and they were wrong.
It is obnoxious to say that we all saw this coming, but generally speaking, we did. Watt’s explosiveness tailed off through the 2024 season before his injury and has dropped again this year. His get-off was 0.75 seconds in 2022, then 0.79 in 2023, 0.83 in 2024 and now 0.87 in 2025. That full tenth of a second matters for a speed rusher such as Watt, who has delivered a pressure rate below 10% in each of the past two seasons.
With a deep and young group of edge rushers behind him, the Steelers were well-positioned to get out a year early rather than a year late. But moving on from Watt didn’t fit their timeline, so he was extended at a $41 million annually — greater than the average annual value of Myles Garrett’s contract. Garrett has 19 sacks this season; Watt has seven.
on Sunday in the absence of first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (knee); it was the most rushing yardage surrendered by the Steelers at home since 1975. They can’t play too much zone coverage, either — it’s hard to hide those linebackers.
The offensive issues are similar but siloed in one player: Rodgers. No two ways around it, Rodgers is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He cannot drive the football but hates to throw interceptable balls, so he flutters passes at the edge of his receivers’ range. He also hates getting hit, so he gets rid of the ball faster than almost any other passer, which negates his elite post-snap processing. Once the premier magician in extending plays and throwing on the move, Rodgers is now one of the worst QBs on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds. Only Cam Ward, Joe Flacco and Jaxson Dart have worse success rates on such plays.
Game planning for Rodgers and the Steelers is extremely easy. Top corners travel with Metcalf (Christian Benford did this week, and DJ Turner II did two weeks before) and press him at the line, disrupting the timing of Rodgers’ primary quick-game target. Rodgers will either throw up a prayer to an uninspiring downfield option (Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson) or check down to running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. If he’s lucky, it’ll be tight end Darnell Washington.
A few times per game, one of those after-the-catch athletes will get a big gain. Warren is quick and hard to tackle; Washington is enormous and hard to tackle. Amazingly, 66.4% of Rodgers’ passing yards have come after the catch, which is second only to 2011 A.J. Feeley in the past 15 years. That’s 713 quarterbacking seasons worth of sample!
This is completely untenable. Rodgers’ 5.7 air yards per attempt is 703rd out of those 713 seasons; his minus-3.5 air yards to the sticks is 705th. Rodgers cannot and will not throw the football downfield yet remains in total control of the offense at the line of scrimmage and regularly checks out of runs and into passes. The passing game is completely inadequate. This, like every other aspect of the Steelers’ season, was foreseeable.
Panic meter: It’s the beginning of the end
I can explain the Lions’ recent losses pretty easily. The Lions went 0-for-3 on fourth down in their Thanksgiving loss, while the Packers went 2-for-2 (with some officiating assistance to boot). In the loss in Philadelphia, the Lions were 0-for-5 on fourth down. In the loss to J.J. McCarthy (the Lions really lost to J.J. McCarthy) and the Vikings, they were 1-for-3 in the red zone, and the Vikings got 17 points off three short fields.
The Lions have been losing in high-leverage moments lately. But those are the sort of moments in which losses become wins should one little thing break another way. I trust Dan Campbell and a veteran Lions team to endure that valley and emerge through the other side a little luckier.
With that said, the Lions are 7-5, and that is reason for panic. Homefield advantage is an enormous deal for Detroit because of its quarterback. Jared Goff, a California native with small hands, does not play well in cold weather under the stars. Over his career, Goff has a 68.2% completion percentage indoors, but that drops to 57.4% when playing outdoors in temperatures below 50 degrees. His touchdown-to-interception ratio falls from 3.5 to 1.8, and his dropback success rate falls from 49.8% to 40.5%.
Lions fans don’t like when I reference this stat because Goff has been better during his Lions tenure when outdoors and in the cold relative to how he performed with the Rams. This is only slightly true. He has a 42.7% success rate with the Lions in those spots, versus 39.2% with the Rams. He has a 60.3% completion rate with the Lions, versus 54.8% with the Rams. He has been a little better, but the issue was still clear and obvious against the Eagles on «Sunday Night Football» in Week 11. His grip on the ball falters, and his accuracy nosedives.
The Lions have played all but one of their recent playoff games at home, and the lone road game was in balmy Santa Clara, California. With only an 8% chance to win their division, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections, the Lions will likely have to travel through the postseason. Green Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia and even Seattle are open-air stadiums in cold climates. This is a brutal draw for Goff’s particular weaknesses.
It doesn’t stop there. Goff’s other major weakness — his lack of pocket escapability — has been hammered of late. The Lions’ interior offensive line is markedly worse this season than it was in Goff’s previous seasons. Rookie right guard Tate Ratledge has replaced Kevin Zeitler with average play, while Graham Glasgow has failed to fill Frank Ragnow’s big shoes at center. The Lions tried to get Ragnow back, but he failed his physical. Left guard Christian Mahogany went down for the season with an injury, and Kayode Awosika has struggled in relief. Bad interior protection is an issue for every quarterback but is double damaging for a quarterback who lacks mobility. Goff has to hang in the pocket, and as such, he’s getting hit — a lot.
In fact, Goff has been hit on 20.2% of his dropbacks, easily the highest of his Lions tenure. It’s below only his disastrous 2016 rookie season before Sean McVay arrived in Los Angeles to rescue his career. Those hits accumulate on Goff, who deserves credit for his toughness. But he isn’t Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen. He isn’t built to sustain this level of damage, and his internal clock will accelerate on long and late downs when he sees blitz looks.
The Lions’ offensive line was among the league’s best in Goff’s first few years in Detroit, but those days are behind us. Besides the interior talent drain, left tackle Taylor Decker is showing signs of his age, too. Without elite run blocking, Detroit faces more third-and-longs. Without elite pass protection, Goff struggles more on those downs. The offense loses an edge. It’s not a bad unit, but it isn’t elite anymore.
The defense is also running into issues. Under new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, the Lions remain committed to playing man coverage at above-average rates and on high-leverage downs. The Lions have run man coverage on 44.6% of their defensive snaps, easily the most in the league. On late downs, they’re at 68.7% (again, the most). In the red zone, they’re at 69.0% (third most).
Being predictable is never good. The Packers shredded the Lions on late downs and in the red zone with man-beating concepts, and the Lions’ inability to pass off rub routes created easy touchdowns for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. But the issue isn’t just schematic; it’s also personnel. For as much as the Lions like cornerback Amik Robertson’s disposition and leadership, he struggles with size and speed, as evidenced by the long Christian Watson touchdown this past Thursday. And Detroit invested a 2024 first-round pick in Terrion Arnold in the hopes he would be a shutdown CB1, and he simply hasn’t been. Now he’s on the shelf with season-ending shoulder surgery, and the depth behind Robertson and D.J. Reed will be sorely tested.
Detroit doesn’t have the personnel to run the coverages it wants to run. Safety Kerby Joseph will come back from his knee injury eventually, and the Lions are still fourth best in success rate when playing man coverage. But playoff opponents will have deep rosters of pass catchers (as was the case with the Packers), aggressive quarterbacks and precise playcalling. It’s hard for Detroit to pivot to playing zone, as its base packages put too many linebackers on the field. The Lions need to live in this volatile defensive form, but I’m not sure their corners have three dominant games against the Packers, Seahawks and Rams in them.
It’s not fair to say that the Lions’ window has closed. The same players who created the window — Goff, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, left tackle Penei Sewell, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive tackle Alim McNeill and Joseph — are still there. But the Lions’ window is officially transitioning from a cheap roster to an expensive one, and the thinning margins are evident. GM Brad Holmes needs to hit on players in these next couple of drafts — pass rusher, interior offensive line, cornerback — in order to keep the ship afloat as currently constructed. Otherwise, a soft roster reset will be required.
Panic meter: One week away from all-out mayhem
The Colts are on the cliff’s edge.
Let’s rewind the clock a month. It’s Sunday, Nov. 2. The Colts just suffered their second loss 27-20 to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It was a ridiculous game. The Colts’ offense moved the ball at will but turned it over five times (and special teams contributed a sixth giveaway). Like most teams that hand over the ball six times, the Colts lost. Nothing to worry about. Nothing to see here.
Two days later at the trade deadline, general manager Chris Ballard dealt two first-round picks and receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. Heck yeah. The AFC is gettable. The Colts had found the next Baker Mayfield in Daniel Jones, who looks like a renewed man in Shane Steichen’s offense. After an uncharacteristically aggressive offseason of free agent acquisitions (Charvarius Ward, Cam Bynum), why not make an all-in trade and attack the opportunity this season? Sure, the price is high. Sure, this all but locks them into Jones as their QB for the next three years. But a Lombardi Trophy is in sight.
Since that day, the Colts are 1-2, with only an overtime win against the Falcons in their pocket. The clock has struck midnight on Jones, who has seen his play under pressure totally regress back to his Giants days. A fractured fibula during practice before the Week 12 game against the Chiefs certainly hasn’t helped. But the Colts’ offensive line, which was elite through the first half of the season, has bottomed out. Top edge rushing duos in Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Houston have found success working through Indianapolis’ tackle pair of Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith. Center Tanor Bortolini, an asset in the running game, is also getting exposed in pass protection.
The Colts are also feeling heat from their AFC South rivals. When Ballard made the trade for Gardner, the Colts had a 3½-game lead on the two-time defending AFC South champion Texans, who were 3-5. Houston has since won four straight, including its Week 13 victory over the Colts, to reach 7-5. It is only one game back from Indianapolis and currently owns the tiebreaker. Similarly, the Jaguars were 5-3 at the time of the trade — 1½ games behind the Colts. Jacksonville has gone 3-1, losing only to the Texans, and now shares the same 8-4 record as Indianapolis, with their first head-to-head game approaching.
Panic meter: Moderate to severe
Let’s start with the main reason to not panic.
In Week 13, quarterback Lamar Jackson missed a walkthrough practice because of a toe injury. The previous week, he missed two consecutive practices because of an ankle injury. The week before that, he missed a practice because of knee soreness. All of this came after missing three games (over four weeks) because of a hamstring injury.
Jackson is clearly not healthy. In his five games back from injury, he has run for 14, 36, 10, 11 and 27 yards — an average of 19.6 yards per game. His career average before this season was 59.9 yards per game.
Players don’t magically become healthier in Week 14. Football is a brutal sport, and a week of recovery rarely accounts for accumulated wear on the body, especially this late in the season. It is unreasonable to expect Jackson to suddenly become more healthy and dangerous as a runner. Should their season crumble into a 9-8 finish with no postseason berth, the 2025 Ravens would be far from the first playoff-caliber team to miss the dance because of their quarterback’s health.
But it is not impossible that he gets healthier the further he gets from the hamstring injury. Again: not likely, but not impossible. A healthier Jackson mitigates some of the offensive line issues, as the Ravens’ young trench players — left guard Andrew Vorhees, right guard Daniel Faalele and right tackle Roger Rosengarten — have all underwhelmed this season. Vorhees rotated with third-round rookie Emery Jones Jr. at left guard this past week against the Bengals. Jones is finally healthy, but a third-round rookie still on a learning curve is not exactly elite reinforcement.
Panic meter: We’ve been here before (unclear if this is actually good news)
Let’s force a contrived comparison between this season and the Eagles’ 2023 season.
Through 12 weeks in 2023, the Eagles were 10-1. Their only loss (I’ll give you a billion dollars if you know this off the top of your head) was to the Zach Wilson-led Jets. They had just beaten the Bills and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks.
But even at 10-1, we all knew there was some nonsense. Under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, the Eagles had a top-10 offense by most metrics (EPA per play, success rate, points per drive), but the fan base was furious with him as the Eagles’ passing game ran extremely hot and cold. The college-inspired offense was heavy on spread formations, RPOs and QB runs — too simple, and blitzes confounded everyone from Johnson to young quarterback Jalen Hurts.
The defensive numbers were far more damning: 25th in defensive EPA per play, 26th in points per drive allowed and 26th in explosive play rate surrendered. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai was definitely struggling, and the Eagles eventually handed playcalling over to defensive analyst Matt Patricia. The Eagles lost five of their last six games to finish second in the NFC East and got walloped 32-9 by the Bucs in the wild-card round.
We’re through 13 weeks in 2025. The Eagles are 8-4, which is a pretty accurate reflection of the team. The defensive numbers are good this time — ninth in both EPA per play and points per drive allowed — though there are some obvious concerns at No. 2 cornerback and against the run. It’s the offensive numbers that are clearly problematic. The Eagles are 23rd in points per drive and 27th in offensive success rate. The only offenses that are worse are the Jets, Vikings, Raiders, Titans and Browns.
Second Take: It’s OK for the Bills to be a run-first team
ESPN’s «First Take» is known for, well, providing the first take on things — the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I’ll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen did not throw the football downfield on Sunday.
Literally. He had zero attempts 20-plus yards downfield. In 136 games across Allen’s career, only six have come without a pass 20-plus yards downfield. Four of those six games have come this season.
As the deep ball vanishes from Allen’s game, his overall air yards per attempt drops in concert. Allen’s 7.3 air yards per attempt is a new career low, and if that number holds, it’ll be the eighth season in a row in which Allen’s average depth of target has dropped from the previous season, encompassing every year of his career. (To be fair, rookie Josh Allen was hucking that thing. A decrease was inevitable.)
Even in that backdrop, this game against the Steelers stands out. Allen averaged 1.6 air yards per attempt, almost half the distance of his previous single-game low (3.1). There have been only five games in the past 15 NFL seasons with an air yards per attempt below 2.0 yards.
It’s obviously not good to have the entire passing game live within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nobody is in Orchard Park, New York, celebrating a fully realized offensive game plan that reflected the Bills’ identity and demonstrated their prowess as an AFC contender.
However … this was a very encouraging game for the Bills’ offense! It was a sign of growth from offensive coordinator Joe Brady! It’s the version of the offense that can actually win a Super Bowl!
Let’s start with the obvious: Both starting tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, were out. Just last week against the Texans, we saw what would happen if Allen tried to hang in the pocket for any period of time, and that was with both starting tackles playing (albeit Brown was clearly hurt). Against the Steelers, whose defensive strength is the edge rush, it was important to get rid of the ball quickly. Just as it was the shallowest depth of target of Allen’s career, it was his fifth quickest in time to throw at 2.46 seconds.
From y’all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email ([email protected]) anytime — but especially on Monday each week — to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From Dave: Will the Vikings fire Kwesi this off-season? Thoughts on the supposed quarterback whispering coach?
I’m not going to answer the first half of the question. That’s one for Jeremy Fowler or Dan Graziano. I’m not super impressed with Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s body of work, but I tend to be very judgey toward general managers.
To the second half: I find the fact that the Vikings’ fan base is turning on Kevin O’Connell very silly. O’Connell certainly talked a big game this offseason and likely wishes he kept a more careful tongue. «Organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations» is both a bar and definitely true. But that’s probably a soundbite not worth dropping into the ether to get thrown back in your face.
With that said, it is painfully apparent to anyone watching the Vikings and J.J. McCarthy that the organization didn’t fail him. McCarthy doesn’t have it. Organizations might fail young quarterbacks first, but that doesn’t mean they always fail young quarterbacks. Sometimes they give them the tools — a great playcaller, excellent pass catchers, a supportive running game, an explosive defense — and the quarterback fails anyway. It’s still the NFL draft. Sometimes you draft a guy who doesn’t have a high ceiling. You can coach around him — the Vikings beat the Bears with this guy! The Lions, too! — but you can’t change his stripes.
Ball up top in the 2026 and 2027 NFL draft. Welcome to NFL purgatory.
From Chris: How worried are you about Darnold? I thought he was ok against MIN (OL was awful most of the game), but he was humming until the Rams game and now it seems like teams are figuring out how to disrupt his timing with exotic blitzes and coverage disguises.
I’m unchanged on Sam Darnold. I loved how he played to start the season, but I don’t think anyone thought he was a totally changed man from his failures in Minnesota (and struggles before). It’s hard to calibrate to this when a team has a new quarterback, but it’s important to remember: every quarterback looks worse against good defenses. That’s what makes good defenses good.
Darnold has been shaky against pressure lately. He likely will be for the rest of the season. But play under pressure is notoriously not sticky, and the Seahawks’ passing game is one of the league’s most dangerous when the QB is unpressured. The Seahawks still have a Super Bowl-caliber offense. They’re just a team with a flaw, like almost all Super Bowl teams — champions included — before them.
From Andy: Everybody seemed to know the Rams were good until you put an aged QB out in a cold rain. We may see that Stafford again coming up Dec. 18.
The Rams had an offensive success rate of 58% — the 12th-best single-game performance of any game this season. They also had a 50% dropback success rate and a whopping 70% success rate on the ground. They didn’t see a fourth down in the entire first half — no punts, no field goal attempts, no fourth-down tries, nothing.
Three turnovers will spoil anyone’s effective offensive day, but this game was not an alarm bell. Not by a long shot.
From BPA: Ben are the Bears good?
Yep. And so is Caleb. Which you heard here first.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
plus-25.6%: That’s the Panthers run rate over expectation in their win over the Rams on Sunday. It’s the second-highest number for any offense in any game this season.
The highest? The Jets against the Browns, which hardly counts.
I am in awe of the commitment from Dave Canales and his coaching staff to controlling game state through the running game. The rain was dropping in sheets during the second half, but I don’t think the precipitation tells the whole story. The Panthers didn’t call a single pass on first-and-10 in the second half. 11 handoffs, one RPO throw, and a kneel. They weren’t necessarily shredding on the ground, either — those 11 first-down runs accumulated only 3.7 yards per carry.
But the runs kept Bryce Young and the Panthers’ offensive line out of clear pass-rush situations, where the Rams have an enormous advantage (over them and most other teams). Young was pressured on only four dropbacks — four! Young went 0-for-1 on those dropbacks, taking two sacks and scrambling once. But by tiring out those defensive linemen with a heavy, downhill running attack that sustains drives and by limiting third-and-longs by grinding away 3.7 yards at a time, those pressure opportunities aren’t as frequent or as dangerous.
14.45: That’s Young’s total EPA generated on third and fourth down Sunday. It’s the most passing EPA generated on late downs in a game for any quarterback this season.
I’ll say one thing for Young; he’s clutch. Young had three 30-plus-yard touchdown throws on third and fourth down in this game. He’s the first quarterback with at least three 30-plus-yard touchdowns on late downs in a game since Daunte Culpepper did it against the Lions in 2004.
The third-down touchdown wasn’t that exciting — a swing screen to Chuba Hubbard that caught the Rams in a bad blitz for a walk-in, untouched score.
The two fourth-down touchdowns? Downfield throws against man coverage, both dropped nicely into buckets. In games in which he drops back often and gets hit a ton, Young can become highly erratic in the pocket and prone to mistakes, especially when throwing over the middle. But on game plans like these, in which opposing defenses load the box to stop the run or send extra bodies on the blitz, Young can take his shots. He throws with great touch down the field.
pic.twitter.com/3AbaOpsaM6
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025
Much like against the Packers, we can fairly say the Panthers don’t win this game most of the time. Scoring three offensive touchdowns from 30-plus yards out is not a sustainable path to prolific offense. Getting three turnovers off Stafford is a truly rare occurrence. But Canales and his staff understand how to take games in which the Panthers are clearly outclassed — they were 10.5-point underdogs at home — and distort them into forms the Panthers can win.
That’s having an identity. The entire team — playcallers to players to game managers — rows the boat in the same direction. There is shared belief in one cohesive idea of winning football.
Many teams don’t have that, and most of those teams aren’t in the playoff race. The Panthers have it, and they are.
plus-0.14: That’s Patrick Mahomes’ EPA per dropback on extended dropbacks this season. Those are dropbacks of longer than four seconds.
Here’s a graph. It’s all of the quarterbacks on extended dropbacks this season.
Mahomes is having one of the best seasons on extended dropbacks we’ve seen in quite some time pic.twitter.com/sCDzMub0c5
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 1, 2025
Here’s another graph. It’s every quarterback season over the past five years on extended dropbacks.
Here’s the last five seasons. Lmao. pic.twitter.com/c2vMHottIe
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 1, 2025
We haven’t seen a quarterback have a season like this on long, improvised dropbacks since early Mahomes, early Lamar Jackson, and early Josh Allen — those seasons in which nobody had seen that type of athleticism and improvisation. Defenses got better at the scramble drill and learned to respect Mahomes et al., later and later in the down. But this season, the magic is back.
Not the one-score magic, of course, The Chiefs are 6-6 and might miss the playoffs. But nobody has more extended dropbacks than Mahomes this season, and nobody is producing a positive play on such dropbacks save for Mahomes. He is as he has always been: one of one.
2,934 days: That’s how long of a gap there was between quarterbacks throwing four-plus interceptions in their debut start, as Max Brosmer did for the Vikings on Sunday.
That quarterback in Week 11 of 2017 was Nathan Peterman, who went 6-of-14 for 66 yards and five interceptions in his debut for the Bills.
There are three non-Super Bowl games for which I can remember exactly where I was when I watched the game. The Odell Beckham Jr. catch game (I was there in person). The Bills-Chiefs 13-second game (at my in-laws, watching on my phone and trying not to scream). And the Peterman start. I was at my buddy’s house with his entire family. They are all lifelong, diehard, obsessive Bills fans. It was one of the greatest experiences of my life.
Tomado de https://www.espn.com/
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