Nueva temporada, nuevos retadores de división: Clasificando a los equipos de la NFL con más probabilidades de pasar del último al primero

NFL’s Best Bets for a Worst-to-First Season in 2025

The NFL is known for its dramatic team fluctuations, offering hope to even the previous year’s cellar-dwellers. Since the league’s 2002 realignment, 25 teams have achieved a worst-to-first division turnaround. While 2024 saw none, the 2023 Houston Texans’ remarkable 3-13-1 to 10-7 improvement serves as a recent example.

Predicting these unlikely champions requires analyzing several factors, though sometimes a team defies expectations. The 2024 Washington Commanders, for instance, finished second in the NFC East, exceeding predictions thanks to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ stellar performance.

This article ranks the eight 2024 last-place teams by their odds of winning their divisions in 2025, using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) initial simulations. FPI primarily considers betting market win totals and team schedules.

**Jump to a team:** CHI | CLE | LV | NE | NO | NYG | SF | TEN

**(Note: The following sections will include team logos and detailed analyses for each team, similar to the original article. Due to the length and complexity of reproducing the images and formatting, I will provide the text-based analysis for each team below. The original article’s image structure should be replicated, with team logos and relevant statistics clearly displayed.)**

**San Francisco 49ers (2024 Record: 6-11)**

* **Odds of winning division:** 35.8% (1st in division)
* **Odds of making playoffs:** 62.4% (3rd in NFC)

The 49ers boast the highest worst-to-first odds due to a favorable schedule, returning health, and a surprisingly strong 2024 performance despite their losing record. Their 6.7% DVOA was the best ever for an 11-loss team, showcasing their underlying talent. The return of key players like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams from injury, coupled with the league’s easiest projected schedule, significantly boosts their chances.

**Chicago Bears (2024 Record: 5-12)**

* **Odds of winning division:** 14.9% (4th in division)
* **Odds of making playoffs:** 36.1% (10th in NFC)

Caleb Williams’ expected sophomore leap, offensive line improvements, and the addition of coach Ben Johnson fuel optimism. However, the Bears face the NFL’s second-hardest schedule, including three playoff teams from their own division. Their tough matchups significantly hinder their worst-to-first potential.

**New England Patriots (2024 Record: 4-13)**

* **Odds of winning division:** 14.0% (3rd in division)
* **Odds of making playoffs:** 33.9% (12th in AFC)

FPI projects Drake Maye’s improvement with a better supporting cast. The Patriots’ roster overhaul, including new coaching, offensive and defensive additions, and the return of Stefon Diggs, points towards significant improvement. However, their chances are tempered by the Buffalo Bills’ dominance in their division.

**New Orleans Saints (2024 Record: 5-12)**

* **Odds of winning division:** 11.6% (4th in division)
* **Odds of making playoffs:** 18.4% (15th in NFC)

The Saints’ low FPI ranking stems largely from rookie quarterback Tyler Shough’s projected performance. While the NFC South is weak, their offensive and defensive projections are among the league’s worst, hampered by an aging defense.

**Tennessee Titans (2024 Record: 3-14)**

* **Odds of winning division:** 8.9% (4th in division)
* **Odds of making playoffs:** 14.8% (14th in AFC)

Rookie quarterback Cameron Ward’s potential struggles, coupled with a projected 30th-ranked defense, significantly limit the Titans’ chances. While there’s hope for defensive improvements, their lack of recent high-draft defensive talent hinders their outlook.

**Las Vegas Raiders (2024 Record: 4-13)**

* **Odds of winning division:** 7.1% (4th in division)
* **Odds of making playoffs:** 23.9% (13th in AFC)

Overcoming the AFCTomado de https://www.espn.com/