NFL contendientes y aspirantes a playoffs: Hemos clasificado a cada equipo en nueve niveles

We’re officially into the second half of the 2025 NFL season, and the playoff race is heating up. Though the standings tell us a lot about teams’ chances to reach the postseason, they don’t tell us everything. Team strength, injuries, tiebreakers, future strength of schedule and more can shift those odds up or down and don’t show up in the win (or loss) column.

ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder broke down all 32 teams into nine tiers of playoff hopes, ranging from clear Super Bowl contenders to those already looking to 2026. There are various shades of gray in between because, for as much as we might feel we know about this NFL season, things could look quite different once Week 18 rolls around. The tiers are based on information from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), betting lines, performance metrics, health status and some instinct.

Walder ranked the teams in each tier, though the real delineations are from tier to tier. ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters also added a tangible second-half goal for the teams they cover, whether it’s securing a first-round playoff bye or evaluating the future of the team’s QB position. All statistical rankings are through the Sunday late afternoon window, and playoff chances are from the FPI.

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Tier 1: True Super Bowl contenders

Chances to make the playoffs: 96.7%
Chances to win the NFC East: 96.2%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 18.8%

The defending Super Bowl champions will win their division again. That much we know. But what seed will that net them in the playoffs? They spent the trade deadline trying to shore up a couple of weaknesses at edge rusher (Jaelan Phillips) and third corner (Michael Carter II), and the offensive line hasn’t been as dominant this season, but this is a roster that could still get hot in the playoffs and go all the way again. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Secure the top seed in the NFC. The Eagles have a commanding lead in the NFC East but have bigger goals in mind. They’re in range for the No. 1 seed, but it’s a tight race, with the top-seven teams within a game of each other in the standings. Wins against the Packers and Lions over the next two weeks could give the Eagles some breathing room. — Tim McManus

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Chances to make the playoffs: 95.2%
Chances to win the NFC West: 54.3%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 22.2%

It’s easy to forget the fragility of the Rams’ Super Bowl aspirations in the preseason, as quarterback Matthew Stafford was trying to heal. Not only has Stafford been healthy, but he has played well. Wide receiver Puka Nacua is in the midst of an Offensive Player of the Year-type season. And the defense ranks fourth in EPA per play. And after handily beating the 49ers on Sunday, the Rams are virtually locked into at least a postseason berth. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Earn home-field advantage. The Rams’ past two postseasons have ended in tough environments: in a loud Ford Field against the Lions in the 2023 wild-card round and in the snow in Philadelphia to end the 2024 season. Los Angeles has already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Eagles this season but still has several NFC contenders on the schedule: the Seahawks (Weeks 11, 16), Buccaneers (12) and Lions (15). — Sarah Barshop

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Chances to make the playoffs: 87.2%
Chances to win the AFC East: 29.3%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 12.4%

It has been an imperfect season from Josh Allen — who ranks 16th in QBR — and the Bills, highlighted by their shocking loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. That defeat puts them 1½ games behind the Patriots in the AFC East division, hampering their chances to earn a home playoff game, let alone the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Though there are deserved questions about the struggling run defense, the Bills, with Allen at the helm, should still be one of the Super Bowl favorites come playoff time. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Bills will have to get through several injuries and some offensive and defensive inefficiencies to get the top seed for the first time in the Allen era. Overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East standings comes first (a big matchup awaits in Week 15), but then all attention will be on grabbing the top seed in the conference. — Alaina Getzenberg

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Chances to make the playoffs: 91.7%
Chances to win the NFC West: 30.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 11.3%

Quarterback Sam Darnold arrived in Seattle and proved all the critics — myself among them — wrong. Darnold is playing light-years ahead of where he was last season in Minnesota, and that has the Seahawks third in EPA per dropback. Back-to-back blowouts that flexed the Seahawks’ strengths on both sides of the ball not only cemented them as a near-certain playoff team, but also a Super Bowl contender. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Get the run game going. Seattle has one of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses despite a rushing attack that can’t get off the ground. It isn’t for lack of trying. No team has a higher designed rush rate than the Seahawks (50.9%), yet they ranked 28th in yards per carry (3.8). It hasn’t helped that Seattle has faced the most boxes with at least eight defenders of any team. The Seahawks hope the addition of speedy receiver Rashid Shaheed will create fewer defenders in the box, which could help open the run game. — Brady Henderson

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