ESPN’s Football Power Index Predicts a Tight 2025 NFL Season

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has released its projections for the 2025 NFL season, predicting a closely contested race for the Super Bowl LX championship. While the Philadelphia Eagles are favored, their 12% chance of winning represents the lowest probability for a preseason favorite since the model’s inception in 2015.

The FPI, a comprehensive ratings and projection model, bases its preseason predictions on betting market win totals, team schedules, quarterback depth, and special teams performance. Thousands of season simulations generate the final projections, which are then refined throughout the season based on team performance, opponent quality, and other factors like home-field advantage and rest.

A Tight Race at the Top:

Five teams—the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, and Bills—form a clear top tier, separated by a mere point in FPI rating. This indicates that any of these teams could defeat another on a neutral field. A significant gap separates this elite group from the rest of the league, with the sixth-ranked team trailing by 1.8 points. The common thread among the top five is offensive prowess, highlighting the importance of consistent offensive production in predicting long-term success. However, the Eagles’ slight edge stems from their superior defense, anchored by linebacker Zack Baun and promising young players like Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Each of these top five teams has at least an 8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, and there’s a 50% chance the champion will come from this group.

Super Bowl LX Matchups:

The most likely Super Bowl LX matchup, according to the FPI, is a rematch of Super Bowl LIX between the Eagles and Chiefs (4% probability). Other highly probable matchups include Eagles-Ravens and Eagles-Bills (both at 4%). The top ten most likely matchups feature a diverse range of NFC teams (Eagles, Lions, Commanders, Rams, and 49ers), while the AFC is dominated by the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens.

NFC North Showdown:

All four NFC North teams rank in the FPI’s top half. The Detroit Lions lead the division with a 41% chance of winning, followed by the Green Bay Packers (25%). Despite a 14-3 record in 2024, the Minnesota Vikings are projected only 15th overall due to their offensive shortcomings and uncertainty surrounding second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season due to injury. The Chicago Bears, under new coach Ben Johnson and with offensive line upgrades and a year of experience for quarterback Caleb Williams, show significant improvement.

NFC West Race:

The Los Angeles Rams are slightly favored in FPI rating, but the San Francisco 49ers have a slightly better chance (36% vs. 34%) of winning the NFC West due to a significantly easier schedule. This projection reflects the FPI’s belief in the 49ers’ ability to rebound from injuries that hampered their 2024 season.

AFC East Domination:

The Buffalo Bills are projected to dominate the AFC East, holding a 65% chance of winning the division. While there’s a significant chance another team could win the division due to inherent variance in the sport, the Bills are strongly positioned for another successful season.

Bengals’ Playoff Hopes:

Despite Joe Burrow’s stellar 2024 performance, the Cincinnati Bengals’ defensive struggles in 2024 (23rd in EPA allowed per play) led to a regular season exit. With a new defensive coordinator, the FPI projects an average defense for the Bengals in 2025, placing them 7th overall. While the Ravens are favored to win the AFC North, the Bengals have a 60% chance of making the playoffs.

Bottom of the Barrel:

The New Orleans Saints are projected last overall, largely due to the unexpected retirement of quarterback Derek Carr. Their reliance on rookie or inexperienced quarterbacks significantly impacts their FPI rating. However, the weakness of the NFC South gives them a surprisingly decent chance (fourth-best) at the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft.

2026 Draft Order:

The Cleveland Browns have the highest probability (13%) of securing the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, largely due to their quarterback situation and a challenging schedule. The New York Giants, with the league’s toughest schedule, are close behind at 12%.

Tomado de https://www.espn.com/